Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 3.127979 3.759235 4.466173 5.313711 6.299216 7.405923 8.739597
2025-05-11 2.200239 2.993009 3.977224 5.277281 6.936245 8.968041 11.628534
2025-05-18 1.575047 2.388114 3.491342 5.072372 7.249810 10.108708 14.104641
2025-05-25 1.152357 1.927965 3.067413 4.821115 7.399594 10.989030 16.284322
2025-06-01 0.913746 1.668268 2.856612 4.801213 7.822643 12.238185 19.046793
2025-06-08 0.748219 1.480442 2.709013 4.832810 8.297121 13.578341 22.037219
2025-06-15 0.613094 1.310343 2.552579 4.812877 8.668729 14.777136 24.901544
2025-06-22 0.476952 1.104368 2.293187 4.571301 8.635144 15.321752 26.781293
2025-06-29 0.396549 0.987313 2.170169 4.542993 8.944022 16.426213 29.621240
2025-07-06 0.331298 0.885555 2.056169 4.509369 9.230094 17.505147 32.490923
2025-07-13 0.306902 0.869234 2.109195 4.799980 10.130695 19.701727 37.396233
2025-07-20 0.274512 0.826026 2.097665 4.957735 10.793852 21.528900 41.790976
2025-07-27 0.250643 0.800082 2.122786 5.201293 11.661718 23.818837 47.214418
2025-08-03 0.212578 0.726820 2.027842 5.176285 11.995894 25.160586 51.048504
2025-08-10 0.171627 0.633175 1.866119 4.978340 11.951815 25.783368 53.610001
2025-08-17 0.136125 0.543844 1.695995 4.732324 11.772839 26.122016 55.653203
2025-08-24 0.116152 0.497102 1.626525 4.713126 12.077983 27.430161 59.622538
2025-08-31 0.101003 0.461666 1.580594 4.744344 12.496480 28.995084 64.190544
2025-09-07 0.086491 0.423391 1.518633 4.724775 12.794753 30.332146 68.391610
2025-09-14 0.068520 0.364538 1.382374 4.487110 12.552558 30.512369 70.273270
2025-09-21 0.058522 0.334031 1.326706 4.459265 12.809845 31.776130 74.446882
2025-09-28 0.049914 0.305893 1.272313 4.426187 13.049341 33.016346 78.646447
2025-10-05 0.048178 0.309254 1.325063 4.712108 14.123134 36.182078 87.091986